I have a private theory that may be completely erroneous. In the spring of 2008 gasoline prices in the US hit over $4.oo per galleon. I believe that scarred the American people into the realization that in particular those without access to public transportation and long commutes and houses that were becoming at best unsaleable were now going to be feeding their cars and trucks over $100 a week. Other spending priorities had to be set aside to feed the gas tank that helped feed the family.
I t definitely looks like Libyan oil will be disrupted for a while.
But what I am wondering is what if the Islamic world as a whole organized itself to be able to boycott the WESTERN world for any products it wished including oil? Boycotts have always been powerful tools witness OPEC. The US and Europe were lucky that not all oil producers joined OPEC. Two big ones that did not were Mexico and Canada.
My question involves the 55 countries that are majority Islamic. Which includes apparently now NIGERIA a major supplier of oil to the US.
Of course some boycotts can occur unintentionally as when political upheaval disrupts the technological sinews that allow petroleum production. Perhaps this thinking is far fetched.
Well it does look like the $4.00 per galleon will be reached this year and remain there for some time. Unfortunately that will not help the US recovery or the chances for a second term for President Obama. Personally I am very very tired of Washington events being a cliffhanger.
If oil and gas skyrockets, if unemployment persists at high levels, if the FED devaluation of the dollar does not stop, if the Senate and House cannot muster majorities on any important issue, if the Adminstration hunkers down or does not understand negotiations with whomever and has no long range strategy then by the 2012 election it won’t make much difference what the policies of other nation states are towards US. We will be viewed as a totally incompetent political unit that has the merit that its extractive industries can continue to extract from the commons without much interference and because of low taxes, hidden subsidies, and other factors continue to provide and strip the nation’s resources for delivery at record low prices to other countries and parts of the world. As more teachers are laid off or made penniless by inefficient state and local decisions we also jeopardize the real resource of the US, its people. It is one thing to have no efficient and effective government, and it is a whole new world when there is no government.
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