Today’s post on Juan Cole’s Informed Comment struggles to be optimistic about the insurgency in Libya:
But see also:
Unfortunately the dream for the Libya insurgents will be over as March ends. A wasted opportunity for change because in essence MQ the leader of Libya was the US and EU’s man and he has not just skillfully outlasted a disorganized insurgency (the Twitter generation may just be Twits) but skillfully outmanueverd the US and EU with threats of being returned to full terrorist status should he really try to bring down the house of cards in Libya.
I hope the Israelis are watching the US performance closely because to my point of view in the very near future this decade they are likely to be like the Libyan insurgents, the Shia around Basra after Desert Storm, the Iranian pro-democracy forces and others. No the US reaches for its military prowress when it can do what it does best–massive invasion and destruction with no thought as to what comes afterwards or a war like Afghanistan where it uses sieze and hold and abandon tactics to pretend somehow that will influence a polity with 4000 years of history.
The victory for MQ is likely to be bloody and total and very very vengeful. This guy is nuts and no one can predict how this close call on his dictatorship will demonstrate itself after this insurgency dies and many insurgents are put to the torch literally.
Petrol supply may tip the issue to MQ!